The new model of US election prediction win or lose-poper

15 Apr

The new model of US election prediction: win or lose? U. S. election day, there are four days, or win win? In the past it was very clear that Hilary was in the top two, with little suspense. But FBI Secretary Komi created a "October surprise", Hilary decided to restart the investigation "post", the Trump poll to catch up. In the last week of the election, almost all of the traditional prediction methods, including real-time polls, and less traditional forecasting methods, the results show that two people in a state of stalemate, closecall. To love this uncertainty, which caused a lot of confusion, especially for investors, often indecisive, causes the market to confound. People have to find new ways to predict whether or not to win. A political scientist in the United States has developed a simple model of the use of two variables to indicate that a particular player wins. A variable is the candidate’s performance in the primaries, Trump’s primary performance is stronger than that of Hilary. A variable is to see who is now the ruling party, which is not conducive to Hilary, the Democratic Party has been in power for 8 years, the American people like to change the ruling party. These two variables are simple, but very useful. Since the invention of 30 years ago has been tested, can accurately predict the results of the presidential election. However, the accuracy of the past may not prove that this is also accurate. This method is simple, often people can not believe. But I think there is a bit of truth, if the special win lose, this model will win some reputation. Today, the United States today published an article, said to find a number of new forecasting methods, one is the stock market forecasting methods, one is the American wallet prediction model. Stock market says Trump will be president Trump. The model of the stock market is very simple, just look at the standard & Poor’s 500 listed companies index, if the first three months before the vote, the 500 companies have no profit, then the ruling party will lose the election. Now, the performance of the stock market in the past three months is not good, it is clear that the ruling party candidate is Hilary will lose. This model can be compatible with the model of political scientists, the combination of the two together, especially to win the results will be more uncertain. Since 1926, the 22 presidential election, has verified this model for the 19 time. Obviously, the accuracy of this model is quite high. Stocks have fallen by 4% since August 8th. Looks like Trump is going to win. The United States today, the article also describes the U.S. wallet prediction model. This model is more complex, the U.S. economy group (AmericanEconomic Group) of the invention, the model is not concerned with several factors of general model of concern: three polls, debate performance, policy stance, the candidate’s character, the model about the three economic variables and the unemployment rate, wage growth rate and inflation rate, coupled with the war or peace and the third party candidates of the two variables. The prediction ability of this model is also very strong, the last 25 presidential elections, the 22 have predicted success. Since 1980, the presidential campaign, then success, no suspense. This model is also very reliable. However, this model is just the opposite of the stock market model相关的主题文章: